Possible Northern Lights as far south as Ottawa:
A solar event occurred on Dec 14th that may produce auroral displays greater than our auroral forecast index 4, sometime after midnight (0836 Greenwich time) on the 16th of Dec. This means the shock may reach Earth sometime around midnight on Dec 15 in North America. Depending on the character of the disturbance following the shock, viewing may be good on the night of the 16th and 17th. Auroral Index 4 means Kp=4: Auroral activity will be active. Weather permitting, active auroral displays will be visible overhead from Inuvik, Yellowknife, Rankin and Igaluit to Juneau, Edmonton, Winnipeg and Sept-Iles, and visible low on the horizon from Vancouver, Great Falls, Pierre, Madison, Lansing, Ottawa, Portland and St. Johns for North America.
This is the description of the event:
Time: 2010 12 14 1503 UT
Shock velocity: Vs = 1000 km/sec
Duration: Tau = 4 hr.
Solar Wind velocity: Vsw = 625 km/sec
Our model predicts the following:
Mach 4.3 shock will reach Earth 2010 12 16 0836Z
Total propagation time 41h 33m